Saturday, August 09, 2003
Friday, August 08, 2003
Louisiana governor's race update
Jeff Crouere has a great column today that promotes a likely conspiracy theory. Namely, that Hunt Downer's campaign is all about raising name ID for an upcoming run for Congress next year. I find this highly likely, because (as I have stated several times) it is not logical for Governor Foster to support one candidate (Bobby Jindal) and for the governor's top supporters and staff to support another (Downer). I have always believed that one of these two candidates would not make the ballot.
When you pair this with the fact that Dan Kyle hasn't shown the ability to raise enough money to run a serious campaign, you end up with two strong GOP candidates (Jay Blossman and Bobby Jindal) and four strong Democrats. There is no way that this math produces a general election featuring two Democrats.
Jeff Crouere has a great column today that promotes a likely conspiracy theory. Namely, that Hunt Downer's campaign is all about raising name ID for an upcoming run for Congress next year. I find this highly likely, because (as I have stated several times) it is not logical for Governor Foster to support one candidate (Bobby Jindal) and for the governor's top supporters and staff to support another (Downer). I have always believed that one of these two candidates would not make the ballot.
When you pair this with the fact that Dan Kyle hasn't shown the ability to raise enough money to run a serious campaign, you end up with two strong GOP candidates (Jay Blossman and Bobby Jindal) and four strong Democrats. There is no way that this math produces a general election featuring two Democrats.
Democrats object to advice
Pejmanesque has a great post about the right of conservatives to give advice to the Democratic candidates. He links to this Kevin Drum post on the same subject. Here's what I put in the comments section:
Well, here's one conservative republican who has some advice for Democrats:
Please, please make the election a referendum on Iraq. Please ignore the fact that the war is still supported by the vast majority of Americans. Please ignore the fact that the average American thinks that Saddam has had this coming since 1991 and we should have finished him off then. Please keep saying that "Bush lied!" when anyone with half a brain can see that the "16 words" were factually accurate and weren't the reason we went to war anyway. Please continue to pretend that Saddam would not have started mass production of WMD the minute that inspections stopped and sanctions ended (they were never sustainable indefinitely). Please continue your path toward losing big in 2004.
Pejmanesque has a great post about the right of conservatives to give advice to the Democratic candidates. He links to this Kevin Drum post on the same subject. Here's what I put in the comments section:
Well, here's one conservative republican who has some advice for Democrats:
Please, please make the election a referendum on Iraq. Please ignore the fact that the war is still supported by the vast majority of Americans. Please ignore the fact that the average American thinks that Saddam has had this coming since 1991 and we should have finished him off then. Please keep saying that "Bush lied!" when anyone with half a brain can see that the "16 words" were factually accurate and weren't the reason we went to war anyway. Please continue to pretend that Saddam would not have started mass production of WMD the minute that inspections stopped and sanctions ended (they were never sustainable indefinitely). Please continue your path toward losing big in 2004.
Thursday, August 07, 2003
Stop the presses!
So Bob Novak has figured out that Howard Dean is the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination, that he got there by hating Bush more than the other dwarfs, and that Iowa and New Hampshire are going to be important. Well, no s***, Sherlock! Is it just me, or has the quality of Novak's columns been going down? Maybe it's just that I get now so much more info from the blogosphere that his columns are passe by the time I read them.
Anyway, the election is more than a year away, people. A lot can happen in that amount of time. Trying to predict how many states President Bush will win is silly, as this Slate bit hilariously demonstrates. Everyone is trying to write Dean's political legacy before the campaign really gets started. It's obvious that the President will be heavily favored to win the election, no matter who his Democratic opponent is, but it's certainly nothing even resembling a foregone conclusion.
So Bob Novak has figured out that Howard Dean is the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination, that he got there by hating Bush more than the other dwarfs, and that Iowa and New Hampshire are going to be important. Well, no s***, Sherlock! Is it just me, or has the quality of Novak's columns been going down? Maybe it's just that I get now so much more info from the blogosphere that his columns are passe by the time I read them.
Anyway, the election is more than a year away, people. A lot can happen in that amount of time. Trying to predict how many states President Bush will win is silly, as this Slate bit hilariously demonstrates. Everyone is trying to write Dean's political legacy before the campaign really gets started. It's obvious that the President will be heavily favored to win the election, no matter who his Democratic opponent is, but it's certainly nothing even resembling a foregone conclusion.
Domestic Terrorism
Guess which terror group has caused more damage in the US in the last year, Al Queda or the ELF?
Guess which terror group has caused more damage in the US in the last year, Al Queda or the ELF?
Louisiana governor's race update
What with all the hoopla about Ahnuld, you'd think that California was the only state holding an election this year. Hmph!
Anyway, the GOP hopefuls for the nod promised to support whichever of them ends up in the runoff, if any. As regular readers of this blog know, I do believe that a Republican will make it to the general election.
Meanwhile Hunt Downer started running his first TV commercials. Needless to say, I'm not impressed.
"I initiated the education accountability law. I've been able to put into place the Anti-Terrorism Act and Homeland Security legislation."
Even I don't know what these bills accomplished, but the Downer campaign expects the average Louisiana voter to know. A better ad would have said how the bills would improve education and make citizens safer. Nobody is going to be impressed that he got a couple of bills passed.
(disclaimer: I am supporting Jay Blossman for governor)
What with all the hoopla about Ahnuld, you'd think that California was the only state holding an election this year. Hmph!
Anyway, the GOP hopefuls for the nod promised to support whichever of them ends up in the runoff, if any. As regular readers of this blog know, I do believe that a Republican will make it to the general election.
Meanwhile Hunt Downer started running his first TV commercials. Needless to say, I'm not impressed.
"I initiated the education accountability law. I've been able to put into place the Anti-Terrorism Act and Homeland Security legislation."
Even I don't know what these bills accomplished, but the Downer campaign expects the average Louisiana voter to know. A better ad would have said how the bills would improve education and make citizens safer. Nobody is going to be impressed that he got a couple of bills passed.
(disclaimer: I am supporting Jay Blossman for governor)
Wednesday, August 06, 2003
Deciding to cast a protest vote
Spoons is a great example of a "make a statement" conservative -- read my reply in his comments.
UPDATE: Spoons and I ended up with a pretty interesting discussion -- definitely a must read, if I do say so myself.
Spoons is a great example of a "make a statement" conservative -- read my reply in his comments.
UPDATE: Spoons and I ended up with a pretty interesting discussion -- definitely a must read, if I do say so myself.
Tuesday, August 05, 2003
Leftward Ho?
So Sen. Evan Bayh is worried that the Democratic Party is in danger of being captured by the "far ideological left." Looks like it's too late to me.
A friend of mine once asked me, "Do you want to make a statement or do you want to make a difference?" Both parties have "make a statement" activists and "make a difference" activists. I think that most liberal interest groups are interested in making a statement right now. As James Carville said, the NRA doesn't make GOP candidates come to their convention and wave assault rifles to the crowd.
The difference between making a statement and making a difference goes beyond ideology. It's not necessarily the difference between more moderate candidates and those who are more strident in their beliefs. It's more about priorities and emphases.
Unlike some Republicans, though, I'm not salivating at the prospect of a Dean candidacy. All the other candidates (except maybe Lieberman) look like sure losers to Bush at this point. Dean looks like a loser as well, but he's so unpredictable that it's just a little scary. Of course his liberal record provides lots of material for negative TV ads, but his apparent sincerity and passion would likely come through, especially in the debates.
Sincerity, real or faked, is becoming a more and more valuable assest in politics these days. Much of Bill Clinton's success came from the fact that he was an "unusually good liar," and people believed that he cared about them. Apparent sincerity is also why Jesse Ventura was elected governor of Minnesota. That's why rooting for Dean seems like a bad GOP strategy to me.
So Sen. Evan Bayh is worried that the Democratic Party is in danger of being captured by the "far ideological left." Looks like it's too late to me.
A friend of mine once asked me, "Do you want to make a statement or do you want to make a difference?" Both parties have "make a statement" activists and "make a difference" activists. I think that most liberal interest groups are interested in making a statement right now. As James Carville said, the NRA doesn't make GOP candidates come to their convention and wave assault rifles to the crowd.
The difference between making a statement and making a difference goes beyond ideology. It's not necessarily the difference between more moderate candidates and those who are more strident in their beliefs. It's more about priorities and emphases.
Unlike some Republicans, though, I'm not salivating at the prospect of a Dean candidacy. All the other candidates (except maybe Lieberman) look like sure losers to Bush at this point. Dean looks like a loser as well, but he's so unpredictable that it's just a little scary. Of course his liberal record provides lots of material for negative TV ads, but his apparent sincerity and passion would likely come through, especially in the debates.
Sincerity, real or faked, is becoming a more and more valuable assest in politics these days. Much of Bill Clinton's success came from the fact that he was an "unusually good liar," and people believed that he cared about them. Apparent sincerity is also why Jesse Ventura was elected governor of Minnesota. That's why rooting for Dean seems like a bad GOP strategy to me.
Monday, August 04, 2003
Diplomatic victory in North Korea
As usual, Steven Den Beste has the goods. Here, he explains the brilliance of President Bush's strategy toward North Korea. As usual, the liberals have consistenly wrung their hands about North Korea, exemplified by Slate's Fred Kaplan here and here. Joe Biden has disgracefully claimed that the administration has no policy and has advocated a Clinton-like plan of giving in to North Korea's demands.
Now that President Bush has won his little game of chicken, I'm waiting for the media and the Democrats to credit him for his success (but I'm not holding my breath).
As usual, Steven Den Beste has the goods. Here, he explains the brilliance of President Bush's strategy toward North Korea. As usual, the liberals have consistenly wrung their hands about North Korea, exemplified by Slate's Fred Kaplan here and here. Joe Biden has disgracefully claimed that the administration has no policy and has advocated a Clinton-like plan of giving in to North Korea's demands.
Now that President Bush has won his little game of chicken, I'm waiting for the media and the Democrats to credit him for his success (but I'm not holding my breath).
